Schellnhuber thinks he can forecast El Niño a year in advance

Watts Up With That?

From the Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research (PIK) where breakthroughs happen even before they have a proven track record. It appears he was able to predict one event last year in 2012 from the method run in 2011, but just one success does not a breakthrough make, especially when we are dealing with a chaotic system and the method depends on “inspecting emerging teleconnections”.  Only time will tell if his idea has any skill. Hansen has already tried and failed on predicting El Niño. -Anthony

Breakthrough in El Nino forecasting

In order to extend forecasting from six months to one year or even more, scientists have now proposed a novel approach based on advanced connectivity analysis applied to the climate system. The scheme builds on high-quality data of air temperatures and clearly outperforms existing methods. The study will be published this week in the Proceedings of the National Academy…

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