Hindcasting climate shifts in the Pacific

Watts Up With That?

From the Helmholtz Centre for Ocean Research Kiel (GEOMAR)

The potential for successful climate predictions

Hindcast experiments capture long-term climate fluctuations

Will there be rather warm or cold winters in Germany in the coming years? We may have a long way to go before reliable forecasts of this kind can be achieved. However, marine scientists, under the auspices of the GEOMAR Helmholtz Centre for Ocean Research Kiel, recently managed to successfully hindcast climate shifts in the Pacific. These shifts also have a profound effect on the average global surface air temperature of the Earth. The most recent shift in the 1990s is one of the reasons that the Earth’s temperature has not risen further since 1998. The study, published in the online edition of Journal of Climate, shows the potential for long-term climate predictions.

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