Pacific Ocean monitoring stations around the world are now calling for a 50-67 percent chance of El Nino
later this year. A warming of the Eastern Pacific that, should it emerge, is likely to result in record atmospheric and ocean temperatures as the human greenhouse gas heat forcing emerges, once more, from the oceans. But, so far, the Eastern Pacific remains in a somewhat cool ENSO-nuetral state. It is a trend that should lead to global atmospheric temperature averages somewhat hotter than the ocean surface. A trend that should not show ocean temperatures spiking, with atmospheric values rising at a slower rate.
But over the past week, according to both GFS model assessments and NOAA observational data, average global ocean surface temperatures have been surging.
(Sea surface temperature anomaly from the already warmer than normal 1971 to 2000 base period. Image source: NOAA.)
Large zones of well above average…